Heating prices set to rise this winter: gas customers could see bills jump by up to 40%

What happened and when

On 27 September 2026, ERR published a story reporting that prices for almost all heating fuels will rise in the coming heating season. The reason is the global market price of natural gas, which has more than doubled over the past year, according to Elenger's commercial director Armen Kasparov. Elenger customers on exchange-based pricing packages can expect a 35 to 40 percent price increase compared to the previous heating season.

The situation is also difficult for district heating, which is used by more than half of Estonia's population. According to Utilitas head Robert Kitt, prices are rising in five out of Estonia's eight district heating regions, by around 10 percent on average. The increase has hit Narva hardest, where district heating relies mostly on gas and prices are now the highest in Estonia, at 137 euros per megawatt-hour.

Different fuels, different price trends

Not all heating fuels are becoming more expensive at the same rate. According to Mart Liivak, head of Harju Puu, firewood prices have risen only modestly, by around 5 to 10 percent for dry firewood, since raw material costs have stayed stable. Merike Kaljula, a music teacher from Türi, gave an example of buying 15 cubic meters of firewood in early May at 80 euros per cubic meter.

• Firewood (dry): price up by around 5 to 10 percent
• Pellets: prices did not drop over summer, as exports to Poland increased
• District heating: up roughly 10 percent on average in five out of eight regions
• Gas on exchange-based pricing: up 35 to 40 percent
• Narva district heating: Estonia's highest price, at 137 euros per megawatt-hour

What this means for your wallet: a sample calculation

Although ERR did not publish exact euro figures per household, the impact of a percentage price increase on a family budget can be worked out using a percentage calculator. Suppose a family's winter heating bill last season was 600 euros. If they heat with gas on an exchange-based package and the price rises by 40 percent, as Kasparov indicated, the heating bill would grow from 600 euros to 840 euros, an increase of 240 euros. If they use district heating in a region where the price rose by 10 percent, the same 600-euro bill would grow to 660 euros, an increase of 60 euros.

These figures are illustrative, based on the percentages mentioned in ERR's story, not an actual household's bills. Anyone can work out the change in their own real heating bill using the same approach: multiply last season's bill by the percentage increase and add the result to the original amount.

How to prepare for a bigger heating bill

If you already know your heating costs will rise by several tens of percent this winter, it makes sense to start setting money aside as early as autumn, rather than waiting for a large bill to arrive in January or February. A savings calculator can help you work out how much to set aside each month so that by the end of winter you have enough to cover the increase in heating costs.

For example, following the earlier calculation where a gas-heated home's heating costs rise by a total of 240 euros over the winter, that amount could be split across four months, from October to January, which works out to 60 euros per month. This is one way to soften the impact of the price increase on your budget, so a large bill does not come as a surprise.

Narva's special case and the state's role

According to ERR, the situation in Narva is particularly difficult, since the city's district heating relies mostly on gas and prices have risen to Estonia's highest level, while, according to mayor Jaan Toots, 30 percent of the city's residents are pensioners and 13 percent are unemployed, both figures above the national average. Because of this, the city of Narva is requesting a special permit from the Environmental Board to use shale oil for heating, which is currently cheaper than natural gas. The Environmental Board is expected to issue the permit the week after the story was published.

Utilitas, which supplies heat to Tallinn and Maardu among other areas, is also considering applying for a similar special permit to use reserve fuels, including shale oil, should the need arise. In the longer term, Utilitas's dependence on gas is expected to fall below 10 percent in the next heating season, thanks to the Paljassaare heat pump plant currently under construction.